The Live Optimism Index
Five public signals of building activity in Britain. One composite score. Updated monthly.
How the score is calculated
Each of the five metrics is normalised against its trailing 12-month range (0 = the lowest observed value, 100 = the highest). The composite OOS Score is the simple average of the five normalised scores, rounded to the nearest whole number.
The score is designed to be directionally useful rather than precisely predictive. A score above 50 means more signals are pointing toward building activity than away from it. A rising score means conditions are improving across the basket. A falling score warrants attention to which specific signals are moving.
Sources: Companies House monthly digest, Adzuna UK Labour Market Report, Dealroom UK Startup Funding Report, MHCLG Planning Statistics, ONS Personal Wellbeing Survey. All data is publicly available. Sources and methodology updated when data definitions change.
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Published in the first week of every month. The score, the five metrics and a short commentary on what is moving.
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The opening score is 62. That puts Britain in the upper half of the 0 to 100 range: moving, not stuck, not yet in full-build mode. The composite is designed to be read directionally rather than absolutely. A 62 in May 2026 means: more signals pointing toward building than away from it, with meaningful gaps that have not yet closed.
The strongest signal this month is the continued rise in AI job postings: 19.4% of UK tech roles now mention AI or machine learning capability as a requirement, up from 17.3% twelve months ago. That is future literacy becoming a labour market fact. It is not showing up in leadership hiring at the same rate, which is where it matters most. Watch that gap.
New company formations remain healthy. Over 80,000 incorporations in March. The pessimism narrative and the formation data are in direct contradiction, and the data is the more reliable signal of what people actually believe about the future when they have to put money on it.
Investment is flat. Not a red flag at one quarter, but it warrants watching. The planning approval rate is the most encouraging structural signal: 87% grant rate is the highest in four years. Physical building is accelerating. Digital building is following.
The index will be updated in the first week of every month. Subscribe below to receive the update with commentary.