THE OPTIMIST'S INDEX

UK Optimism Score

A weekly composite score of UK business optimism, calculated from four public signal categories and published every Monday. Not sentiment. Signals.

This week's score

62 out of 100 – Week of 11 May 2026

COMPOSITE: 62. Above 50 means builders are still building. The talent signal is the standout this week.

58
Investment signals
VC deployment, angel rounds, startup incorporation rate
65
Talent signals
Job posting volume in growth sectors, hiring intent surveys
71
Innovation signals
AI adoption announcements, patent filings, R+D spending
54
Confidence signals
Founder sentiment, leadership survey responses, forward guidance language in earnings calls

How it's calculated

The Optimist's Index is a manually curated composite score, updated weekly by Mike Litman. Each of the four signal categories is assessed against a basket of public data sources and scored on a 0-100 scale.

This is not an algorithm. It is a calibrated editorial judgement, applied consistently week to week. The methodology is published in full at the bottom of this page. The goal is not statistical precision -- it is a single number journalists can cite and practitioners can track.

Historical data

Week Score Movement Notable signal
11 May 2026 62 – Baseline edition

TABLE POPULATES AS WEEKS PROGRESS

Methodology

Investment signals
UK Companies House incorporations (weekly), Dealroom UK VC data (monthly, interpolated weekly), angel network activity (Seedrs, Crowdcube weekly listings).
Talent signals
LinkedIn UK job postings in AI, tech, creative, and strategic roles. Total Open Roles UK index.
Innovation signals
AI adoption announcements in FTSE 250 earnings calls, UK Intellectual Property Office weekly filings, UKRI grant announcements.
Confidence signals
Founder Forum monthly survey, CBI Business Optimism Index (quarterly, interpolated), forward guidance language sentiment scoring from major UK company reports.

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The index is published every Monday morning. Subscribe to receive it by email.

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Press use

Journalists: the Optimist's Index is free to cite with attribution. Contact hello@mikelitman.me for the weekly data file and methodology notes.